Canadian immigration: What to expect in 2025?

As 2025 begins, Canada’s immigration policies continue to adapt in response to changing domestic priorities, global developments, economic demands, and technological advancements. Below are ten key immigration trends expected to shape Canada’s approach this year.

1. Adjusting Immigration Targets

In October 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unveiled its Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027, outlining goals for permanent residents and, for the first time, temporary residents like international students and foreign workers.

Permanent Residency Goals
The updated plan aims for 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025—a reduction of 105,000 compared to earlier projections. More than 40% of these admissions will likely come from those already in Canada, including students and workers.

Economic immigration will remain the largest category, accounting for nearly 62% of admissions by 2027, with an emphasis on skilled workers in critical sectors like healthcare and trades. Family reunification efforts will maintain about 22% of admissions, while refugees and those admitted on humanitarian grounds will make up approximately 17.5%.

Temporary Residency Goals
Canada is targeting a gradual reduction in its temporary resident population to 5% of the total population over the next three years. This effort includes stricter caps on study permits and changes to work permits under various programs. For new arrivals, work and study permits are projected at 673,650 for 2025, dropping to 516,600 in 2026 before a slight increase in 2027.

2. Removal of Job Offer Points in Express Entry

To combat fraud, IRCC announced that job offers will no longer provide additional points in the Express Entry system starting in spring 2025. This change seeks to reduce misuse of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) and applies to all new and existing candidates in the Express Entry pool at the time of implementation.

3. Strengthening Fraud Prevention Measures

The federal government is proposing new powers to cancel or suspend immigration documents in cases of fraud or misrepresentation. These amendments to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act are intended to address systemic issues and improve accountability across the immigration system. Provinces are also expected to introduce stricter penalties for exploitative practices targeting immigrants.

4. Limiting Flagpoling at the Border

Efforts to reduce border congestion have curtailed the practice of flagpoling, where temporary residents leave and immediately re-enter Canada to access immigration services. Moving forward, most work and study permit applications will need to be filed online, with only limited exceptions allowed at ports of entry.

5. Boosting Francophone Immigration

Canada aims to increase Francophone immigration outside Quebec, with targets for French-speaking permanent residents rising to 8.5% in 2025 and 10% by 2027. Programs like the Francophone Mobility Program and a new Francophone Community Immigration Pilot are part of these efforts, alongside French-language Express Entry draws and other initiatives.

6. Launching New Pilot Programs

Several new immigration pilots are set to debut in 2025.

• Enhanced Caregiver Pilots: These programs will provide permanent residency on arrival for caregivers and allow more flexible work options.

• Rural Community Immigration Pilot: Following the success of previous rural immigration initiatives, this program aims to address labor shortages in smaller communities.

• Provincial Programs: Manitoba has announced a three-year pilot to support rural municipalities and address workforce needs.

7. Amending Citizenship Rules

Amendments to Canada’s Citizenship Act are expected in 2025 to address the second-generation citizenship cut-off declared unconstitutional in 2023. Proposed changes include eliminating the cut-off and introducing a substantial connection requirement, where Canadian parents must have spent at least 1,095 days in Canada before passing citizenship to children born abroad.

8. Managing the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP)

Due to a backlog of applications, IRCC will limit processing under the PGP in 2025 to a maximum of 15,000 applications submitted in 2024. New sponsorship opportunities under the lottery system are unlikely to reopen this year.

9. Expanding Technology in Immigration Processes

IRCC plans to enhance its use of technology, including a new online portal offering greater transparency for applicants, such as case updates and reasons for refusals. Tools like the CBSA’s ReportIn app, which uses facial recognition and GPS for immigration enforcement, will also see broader application.

10. Streamlining Federal Court Procedures

To handle record-high numbers of immigration-related court cases, the Federal Court may expand pilot projects aimed at expediting judicial reviews. For example, a current project reduces the processing time for study permit refusal reviews from 14-18 months to just five months.